Straw Poll Data Revealed: How Pre-Coordination in Rural Districts Skews “Electability” and Risks 2026 Losses
By Phillip C. Parrish
Republican Candidate for Governor of Minnesota 2026
December 16, 2025
Fellow Minnesotans,
In my previous advisory, I urged broader outreach and genuine unity to break the pattern of statewide losses. Today, I offer a closer, data-driven look at the December 13 MNGOP State Central Committee straw poll results, using the official vote tally spreadsheet and observations from the convention. My intent is constructive: to illuminate observable realities so we can make informed choices moving forward.
The headline results — Kendall Qualls at 93, Lisa Demuth at 90, and others trailing — have been presented by some as evidence of clear “front-runners” and a definitive “most electable” narrative. A careful examination of the congressional district (CD) breakdown tells a different story, one that reveals significant pre-coordination and a demographic disconnect that does not serve our goal of winning statewide office.
The Data Speaks Clearly
Minnesota’s eight congressional districts vary dramatically in population, diversity, and political makeup:
• CD4 (St. Paul) and CD5 (Minneapolis) are the state’s most urban and diverse, home to large Black, Hmong, Somali, Latino, and younger populations. Together they represent over a million residents and are essential to any statewide victory.
• CD3 (western suburbs) and parts of CD2 include growing, diverse suburban communities.
• The remaining districts — CD1, CD6, CD7, CD8 — are predominantly rural, older, and whiter, areas of traditional Republican strength.
The vote breakdown shows a stark pattern:
• The alleged front-runners received their strongest, most concentrated support in the rural, less diverse districts (CD1, CD6, CD7, CD8). Examples include large uniform blocks such as 21 votes in CD6 and 16 in CD7 for the leader.
• In the urban core districts that decide governors’ races — CD4 and CD5 — support for those same candidates was minimal, often single digits or near zero. Other candidates, including those focused on fraud exposure and constitutional principles, performed relatively better in these diverse areas.
This is not random. Credible accounts from multiple attendees confirm that approximately 180 of the 336 seated delegate votes — more than half — were pre-committed through private gatherings and coordinated efforts prior to the poll. These pre-arrangements occurred primarily among delegates from the rural, predominantly white districts where conservative identity is strongest. The result is a poll heavily weighted toward preferences shaped by insider coordination rather than open grassroots sentiment.
Convention Realities
The convention seated 336 delegates who could vote. As is standard procedure, alternates and interested guests — over 200 additional Republicans who traveled to participate — were placed in perimeter seating. While this is part of the established process, it nonetheless meant hundreds of passionate activists had no direct voice in the preference poll, further concentrating influence in the seated (and largely pre-coordinated) group.
The “Most Electable” Narrative and Its Risks
When support for proclaimed front-runners comes overwhelmingly from the least diverse, most rural districts — districts that alone cannot win a statewide race — and minimal backing emerges from the urban and suburban areas we must carry, the “most electable” label rings hollow. Yet this narrative is already being amplified, often by the same networks that arranged the pre-commitments.
This is the repeated pattern: early coordination among a demographically narrow segment of the party creates an illusion of momentum, which is then used to pressure others into falling in line. The consequence is a nominee who energizes the base in safe rural areas but fails to build the broad, diverse coalition needed to win Hennepin, Ramsey, and the suburbs.
Why True Unity and Broader Outreach Will Win
Greater Minnesota and suburban communities are filled with citizens who reject party labels altogether. They are farmers, veterans, parents, and people of faith who simply seek truth, accountability, and leadership that chooses right over wrong. These Minnesotans — including over a million Christians who have disengaged from both parties — are open to a message of constitutional integrity, fraud exposure, and genuine service.
When we bypass pre-coordinated narratives and speak directly to all 5.8 million residents, we build the turnout and crossover support that flips elections. The data from this straw poll underscores the opportunity: candidates focused on principle over insider deals resonate in the diverse districts that matter most for victory.
As a retired Navy intelligence officer who has spent decades analyzing patterns, fraud whistleblower, and Catholic father serving in the Archdiocese of Saint Paul and Minneapolis, I share these observations in a spirit of hope and clarity. The numbers do not lie, and neither should we — to ourselves or to the broader electorate.
Let us learn from the data, reject managed outcomes, and build a movement that truly represents and inspires all Minnesotans.
I welcome continued dialogue with every citizen ready to choose right over wrong.
In service,
Phillip C. Parrish
Republican Candidate for Governor of Minnesota 2026
Navy Veteran | Fraud Whistleblower | Constitutional Republican
For press inquiries:
Phillip C. Parrish – phillip@parrish4mn.com
Campaign Manager Heidi Wanty – heidi@parrish4mn.com
Phone: (612) 460-1717
Website: https://parrish4mn.com
X: @phillipcparrish
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